I recently read another one of those never-ending articles about the $40M that Floyd offered to Pacquiao before.http://thyblackman.com/2013/04/30/manny-pacquiao-floyd-mayweather-jr-40-million-was-on-table/#respond
In this article (and like in many of the same ones), I asked myself, was there really someone, or at least the fans, who did the math about this one? Heck, I think even the ones who wrote similar articles never really did the proper math with regards to a possible fight against the two aging P4P stars... Or at least, they did the math, but only on Pacquiao's side
Let's try and start by doing an estimate on the number of PPV buys and possible cost of ordering the fight (again, these are just 'estimates', or best guesses):
3,000,000 (best estimated guess of PPV Buys)
x 60 (rate in US dollars)
$180,000,000 = estimated generated profit
[If Pacquiao agreed to the 40 million Floyd Mayweather offered, then we should assume that the latter would get 140 million, yes?]
*Manny Pacquiao's portion:
40,000,000 (offered guarantee / max earning)
26,000,000 (pacquiao's earnings in his last fight against marquez)
14,000,000 (difference; Pac has 54% increased earnings
from the previous 26M earnings)
*Floyd Mayweather's portion:
140,000,000 (assumed guarantee / max earning)
45,000,000 (floyd's earnings in his last fight against cotto)
95,000,000 (difference; Floyd now has 211% increased earnings
from the previous 45M earnings)
Note: I want to point out that the 3 million PPV buys was the minimum best estimate, hence, the earnings Floyd would possibly receive can definitely be much higher than the $140M estimate. That's Pacquiao's disadvantage since the $40M is a fixed amount. However, if the PPV numbers decreased from the estimate, then Floyd's at a disadvantage on that one (since again, the $40M is fixed). That's where Floyd is a genius at: he knows that even if the PPV numbers failed to reach the 3 million expectation, say only 2.5M, his earnings would still be much in increase than that of Pacquiao's. But the odds are, a fight of this magnitude and importance, the 3 million PPV buys was correct to be called a minimum estimate.
After comparing their last, best earnings when not fighting each other ($45M to $26M), their difference is 63:37, but if Pacquiao had agreed to Floyd's offer, then the ratio would have been 78:22 ($140M to $40M), going into Floyd's favor... However, another point to consider is there are still many paycuts on Pacquiao's end since he's got an "official" promoter, erstwhile Mayweather has "none" (GBP is his de-facto promoter; I guess there are still paycuts, but significantly less than Top Rank's cuts). Therefore in the above $26M Pacquiao's earning, we should assume the 'real' profits from Pacquiao's last fight was much higher than it seemed.
Therefore, if Floyd would have offered Pacquiao $65M to $70M that time and still Pacquiao refused, it would have been justified that Pacquiao is to blame for not accepting. I myself will definitely bash him for not accepting, since the random drug testing was already cleared and that offer was the only thing getting in the way (well... there's still the Mayweather/Haymon/GBP against Arum beef). On the other hand, Floyd had never earned more than $50M in one
fight, yet he stands to make $140M if his $40M offer to Pacquiao had been accepted.
If ever they really fight (which I think they won't, but still hopes they will), that big of a difference in increase in Floyd's earnings than Pacquiao's increase in earnings makes me say that Floyd needs Pacquiao more than the other way around, in this regard
. Am I not justified to assume that thought? If comparing the two numbers of percentage increase, the average person rightly assumes that the one that has the less increase would also be less in value than the one that has the higher increase
I can also recall one boxing columnist that I respect (from boxingtalk.com) accurately saying, "that $40M offer was made to be refused."
Some fans will say that $40M would be Pacquiao's biggest payday in one fight, but since I somewhat have a proof because of the above numbers, I can also say that without Pacquiao, Floyd will never ever get past $60M, or even $50M in one fight.
This is just one fan's opinion....
Check that: estimate. This is just one fan's estimate. I hope I did the math right.