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PostPosted: Mon Jun 18, 2018 3:36 pm 
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The Philippine Peso Needs a More Hawkish Central Bank
By Masaki Kondo
June 18, 2018, 8:12 AM GMT+8

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Peso underperforms Asian peers even after May rate increase
Real policy rate deep in the negative as inflation quickens

The Philippine currency and bond markets will need a more hawkish tone from the central bank this week to stem their losing streak, as investors fret over whether policymakers are softening their fight on inflation.

The peso is at a 12-year low against the dollar even after the May 10 rate increase as central bank officials appear to clash over the prospects of further tightening. Persistent weakness in the bond market, where yields are at seven-year highs, further signal skepticism about the effectiveness of last month’s rate hike in slowing inflation.

With May consumer prices rising 4.6 percent, the fastest pace since at least 2013, BSP’s policy rate of 3.25 percent is deep in negative territory after adjusting for inflation. The rate appears too low for an economy that has expanded more than 6 percent each quarter since mid-2015.

Such concerns are reflected in the bond market where investors are demanding higher compensation for the risks of shrinking real returns. The benchmark five-year bond yield soared to 5.93 percent on June 14, the highest since 2011.

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas will hold its rate meeting on June 20, a day earlier than previously scheduled. Signals from policymakers have been mixed.

Governor Nestor Espenilla said he isn’t closing the door on another rate hike in coming months and the BSP will examine “all the potential drivers of future inflation” at the June meeting. But Deputy Governor Diwa Guinigundo is less hawkish, maintaining that the central bank doesn’t use policy rates to arrest oil prices, and the May rate hike was sufficient to bring down inflation in 2019.

Crude prices have stayed above $60 per barrel for most of the second quarter and economists are expecting inflation to exceed BSP’s target range of 2 to 4 percent this year.

While ING Groep NV and Nomura Holdings Inc. expect the BSP to tighten this week, Scotiabank predicts the central bank to keep rates on hold and the peso to fall toward 54 ahead of the policy meeting. The currency traded at 53.27 against the dollar Thursday before a public holiday the next day.

[url]https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-18/philippine-peso-needs-a-more-hawkish-bsp-to-stem-losing-streak?cmpId=yhoo.headline&yptr=yahoo[/url]



looking forward to June 20 for some good news and hopefully a solution to arrest the misery happening to our economy...

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 19, 2018 9:53 am 
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2nd round of BSP rate hikes seen on Wednesday
By: Ben O. de Vera, Doris Dumlao-Abadilla - @inquirerdotnet
Philippine Daily Inquirer / 05:50 AM June 18, 2018

London-based Capital Economics and British banking giant HSBC are expecting the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) to hike its policy rate by another 25 basis points to 3.5 percent in the monetary setting meeting on Wednesday.

“Having raised the rates at its meeting in May for the first time since 2014, we think the BSP will follow through with another hike [this] week. But as inflation is seen to peak soon, that will probably mark the end of this tightening cycle,” Capital Economics said in a report on Friday.

“The Fed (US Federal Reserve) up to this point may have just been a secondary consideration for the BSP, but last night changes things,” HSBC said in a research note dated June 14. The bank was referring to the Fed’s signal that it might raise rates twice more this year, whereas many were expecting only one more hike after last week’s increase.

HSBC thus believes that the Fed’s most recent guidance would “factor in heavily” at the BSP’s meeting on June 20, leading to the second 25-basis point rate hike for the year.

“We don’t believe this marks the start of a tightening cycle for the BSP. In fact, we believe that with the exception of a more hawkish Fed and the recent dollar rally, domestic economic conditions no longer favor additional monetary tightening,” the research noted.

Capital Economics noted that last week, BSP Governor Nestor A. Espenilla Jr. gave a “little indication of the [central] bank’s next move, stating only that they will ‘be examining closely all the potential drivers of future inflation.’”

While the headline rate nudged up last month to 4.6 percent, it came in lower than expectation, both Capital Economics and HSBC noted.

“The [BSP’s] latest survey showed a slight moderation in inflation expectations,” Capital Economics added.

HSBC said it would bode well for the BSP to strike a more neutral tone after this week’s policy meeting “to stem any significant outflows and further weakness to the currency.”

“There are a few factors likely to push inflation higher over the next couple of months, including higher oil prices, a weaker peso and another increase in tobacco taxes,” Capital Economics said.

Read more: http://business.inquirer.net/252629/2nd ... z5Ipe21kaK
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habol ng habol, BSP....

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PostPosted: Mon Jun 25, 2018 10:15 am 
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DepEd sets razor cost: P1,878 each
Items being bought for schools offering hairdressing course
Philippine Daily Inquirer / 05:21 AM June 25, 2018

CAGAYAN DE ORO CITY — Officials of the Department of Education (DepEd) in Northern Mindanao washed their hands of an emerging scandal over the purchase of razors for P1,878 per piece when their actual price was just about P200 each.

The razors were for distribution to students of the Technical Vocational and Livelihood (TVL) course for senior high school in the region.

Allan Farnazo, DepEd regional director, said he believed that there was no irregularity in the bidding for the razors, Gillete Vector, although these were priced at P1,878 apiece. This particular razor features disposable blades.

The same brand and type of razor sells in malls at just about P200 each. The most expensive Gillette variant, Fusion Proglide Power which is battery operated, sells for P1,199 per piece.

Central office price

Farnazo said the purchase price for the item, to be used by those taking up hairdressing, was set by the DepEd national office.

He said the DepEd regional office was limited to choosing items for the course to a list in the TVL tools and equipment database provided by the DepEd central office in Manila.

The database, Farnazo said, “contained technical specifications, estimated cost and product ID number.”

The regional DepEd office, he said, only facilitated the bid and ensured that bidders had complied with requirements by the department’s central office.
He said the purchase of razors was bid out based on requests made by beneficiary schools for items needed in the hairdressing course.

13 razors, P24,414

Farnazo said 13 razors, worth a total of P24,414, were delivered by the winning bidder, Davao City-based N. R. Eustaquio Enterprises Inc., and were part of the P9-million project to purchase materials needed by TVL students.

The price of the razors, Farnazo said, was dictated upon the regional DepEd office by the department’s Manila office.

He said the cost per item of materials for TVL was “based on costing either given by the central office” or on “local market cost as well as estimates given by end users.”

The controversial razors, he said, were delivered at the DepEd division office in this city where the items passed a check made by an inspection team.

“This meant acceptability,” Farnazo said. He said the razors complied with specs listed by “the principal at the start of the bidding.”

Unpaid

The supplier, however, has yet to be paid for the razors and other items delivered to the DepEd regional office, he said.

“No payment will be made for items that are found to be not in accordance with required specifications,” Farnazo said.

He said he expected the division office and the principal of the school that requested the items to “report any concern that they may have with the delivered items.”

Read more: http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1003769/de ... z5JOnun09J
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corruption na naman, and it's no coincidence involved supplier is from davao city...

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PostPosted: Sat Jun 30, 2018 12:17 am 
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change. is. not. coming. under. duterte.

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PostPosted: Sat Jun 30, 2018 8:24 pm 
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ano ba ang alam kasi nitong taong ito.

naalala nyo pa nung proud nyang sinabi ang Turkey was interested to join the ASEAN? alam nya ba meaning ng ASEAN? :banghead:

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PostPosted: Sat Jul 07, 2018 1:15 pm 
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BSP seen raising interest rates again in August
By: Doris Dumlao-Abadilla - Reporter / @philbizwatcher
Philippine Daily Inquirer / 05:18 AM July 07, 2018

The inflation-targeting Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) is seen to sanction a faster pace of interest rate increases this year after the unexpected spike in the country’s June inflation rate to a five-year high of 5.2 percent.

“Reining in inflation expectations, aside from stabilizing Philippine peso, may require a more aggressive central bank response,” Dutch financial giant ING said in a research note issued yesterday.

ING expects the BSP to raise anew its key interest rates at its next policy meeting in August by at least 25 basis points, with a caveat that a higher policy rate increase may even be possible.

In a separate research note, Japanese investment house Nomura said that after the back-to-back rate hikes in May and June, the BSP may hike interest rates again by 25 basis points at its next meeting in August, taking the policy rate to 3.75 percent.

The 5.2-percent year-on-year June headline inflation was significantly higher than the market consensus of 4.8 percent. It likewise overshot the BSP’s forecast range of 4.3-5.1 percent.

Nomura said risks to its 4.6-percent Philippine full-year inflation forecast might now be tilted more to the upside because of upcoming supply-side factors, such as the impending increases in power rates and the impact of a higher coal tax.

“We believe inflation expectations are also likely to rise further, as evident in rising demand for wage increases. As such, we also now see some risk that the BSP may deliver additional rate hikes this year, taking the policy rate above our 3.75 percent forecast,” Nomura said.

Even British banking giant HSBC—which previously had a neutral view on the BSP’s monetary policy moving forward—was now turning more hawkish.

In a research note, HSBC said the BSP might have to revise its inflation forecast for 2018 and 2019 in the coming weeks, quoting the BSP’s own statement that shepherding inflation back to the 2-4 percent target “may require further policy response in the short-term.”

“HSBC expects further tightening by the BSP only in 2019, due to our expectation for rice tariffication to put downward pressure on prices into year-end 2018. Note, however, that Philippine government officials now expect its passage by end-2018. Delayed passage risks stunting any disinflationary impact the measure may impart on inflation this year,” HSBC said.

According to ING, while full implementation of the government’s supply augmenting measures would moderate inflation, additional cost-push pressures are emerging. After three regional wage boards approved 4-5 percent increases in minimum wages, ING said another regional wage board might approve a 6-percent increase while the government has allowed a 12-percent increase in minimum transport fares for the country’s capital and two adjoining regions.

“Another price pressure is through the recovering oil price. Philippine peso weakness is another price pressure and it depreciated by 7 percent year-on-year in June. Demand pull price pressures from strong economic activity and income tax reform are likely to exacerbate the tight price environment,” it added.

Read more: http://business.inquirer.net/253612/bsp ... z5KXiLFfv9
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can you feel the change now? :banghead:

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PostPosted: Sat Jul 07, 2018 2:49 pm 
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Decline in investment pledges continued in May
By: Roy Stephen C. Canivel - @inquirerdotnet
Philippine Daily Inquirer / 05:00 AM July 07, 2018

Investment pledges registered before the Board of Investments (BOI) dropped close to 45 percent for the month of May, continuing the slump in commitments for the third month in a row.

Pledges only reached P11.76 billion in May, dropping 44.94 percent from the P21.36 billion worth of projects registered in the same month a year ago, data acquired by Inquirer showed.


In a press statement on Thursday, the BOI detailed only the 19-percent growth in cumulative pledges for the first five months of the year to P207 billion.

A closer look, however, showed pledges began declining year-on-year in March.

Lukewarm interest from local firms, in particular, weighed down heavily on the May data. Local pledges dropped 61.57 percent to P7.7 billion, overwhelming the 210-percent growth in foreign pledges to P4.05 billion.

Trade Secretary and BOI Chair Ramon Lopez has not yet responded to a request for comment as of press time.

Data also showed a similar trend in investment pledges registered in another investment promotion agency, the Philippine Economic Zone Authority (Peza).

Peza Director General Charito Plaza attributed the decline to a plan to rationalize tax incentives. Peza caters to export-oriented firms.

In BOI’s statement on Thursday, BOI managing head Ceferino Rodolfo said the increase in foreign investments showed there were “opportunities” to get foreign companies to serve the domestic market “if only the relevant incentive tools are available.”

“It is in this context that we are supportive of the proposed [second package of the Tax Reform for Acceleration and Inclusion law] in order to make our incentive regime more relevant and responsive to needs of investors in priority strategic and socially relevant industries,” said Rodolfo, who is also trade undersecretary.

Read more: http://business.inquirer.net/253602/dec ... z5KY64IsUW
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no comment kasi naubusan na ng palusot...

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PostPosted: Sat Jul 07, 2018 5:35 pm 
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parang blood pressure, kahit sobrang taas na kumpara dun sa mga matataas mong BP dati, sabi ni Dr. Roque, huwag mabahala. :banghead:

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PostPosted: Tue Jul 10, 2018 12:08 am 
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8.4 Billion dollars nawala sa pagbaba ng peso, that's at least 430 Billion pesos. :banghead:

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PostPosted: Tue Jul 10, 2018 12:18 am 
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seems to me the highest % drop in PH history post WII?

para bang pinagmanahan ka ng pera ng magulang mo. tapos winaldas mo lang in 2 years.
Pinagpaguran yon, nagtipid, talagang pinagisipan, para maganda ang kinabukasa ng susunod na generation.
Tapos ayon, pinang happy happy lang! pambayad sa mga bisyo. ginamit din sa masamang paraan gaya ng funding sa patayan.

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PostPosted: Tue Jul 10, 2018 12:45 am 
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Economist ka nga talaga adme. :biglaugh:

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PostPosted: Tue Jul 10, 2018 9:11 pm 
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Diokno says P1 devaluation boosts revenues by P9.2B
November 16, 2016


Economic managers yesterday said the positive impact of a weak peso outweighs any adverse effect. Budget chief Benjamin Diokno estimates that for every P1 depreciation against the US dollar, government revenues rise by P9.2 billion.




---------------

di baleng mawalan ng $8.4 billion at least kumikita naman ng 9.2 billion.



di ba mga dds?

:lol: :lol:

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PostPosted: Tue Jul 10, 2018 10:11 pm 
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gaya ng nasabi ko noong una. Diokno is no longer thinking like an economist but a politician.
Yon nga tumaas ang revenue mula sa remittances and export.

but at the same time tumaas din liability ng Pinas, mas malaki ngayon ang binabayarang interest rate. mas malaki ngayon ang obligasyon pagka mag import ng bigas at construction materials at petroleum at kung ano ano pa.

Kaya nauubos ang reserve!

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PostPosted: Tue Jul 10, 2018 10:26 pm 
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ginagawa na lang kengkoy itong si Duterte...

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PostPosted: Thu Jul 12, 2018 1:19 am 
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"The economy is in the doldrums." -- Duterte


http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1003556/duterte-economy-in-the-doldrums

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