I see a very accurate view and analysis of this writer on the upcoming Mayweather/Guerrero bout next week. I have every wish to see Floyd down and defeated but his style and tactics, specially the elbow and arm push will give Guerrero some hard time. Hope he find a way to counter this. Note also my highlighted lines re one reason Maynever refuses to fight Pacquiao. Read on and let's hear your 2 cents folks;
April 26, 2013
WHY GUERRERO IS NOT THE ONE TO DEFEAT MAYWEATHER
By Tommy Canez
When Robert "The Ghost" Guerrero steps into the ring with Floyd "Money" Mayweather on May 4th, 2013, he will not only be going into the biggest fight of his entire career, he also faces the impossible task of nullifying all of Mayweather's precision, technique, tactics, and skills. On top of that, Guerrero seemingly does not possess the particular skill set needed to expose Mayweather's weaknesses. But what, if anything, can Guererro do different than Mayweather's 42 previous opponents? (Mayweather is 43-0 but fought one opponent twice). The answer is not much, because Guerrero will not be able to offset what Mayweather does to perfection. Let's take a closer look at why Guerrero is not the one to defeat Mayweather.
GUERRERO DOES NOT POSSESS A GREAT JAB
We have seen that Mayweather struggles when there is a consistent, stiff jab in his face. The jabs of Oscar De La Hoya and Miguel Cotto made Mayweather uncomfortable and made their fights against him very competitive. Besides his first fight against Jose Luis Castillo, these were two of Mayweather's closests fights (even though Mayweather won them both). If De La Hoya had keet pumping the jab the entire fight, it could have been the difference maker on the scorecards. The same goes in the Cotto fight. Cotto's hard jab bloodied Mayweather's nose and kept the fight competitive. But the jab is not one of Guerrero's major strengths. His jab is neither a power, heavy-handed jab like Cotto's jab, which can knock you down nor is it a jab like De La Hoya's who had one of the best jabs in the history of the sport and could inflict severe damage by snapping his opponent's head back or twisting the jab at the end to open up cuts. Heavyweight great George Foreman once said that when you are fighting a speedy fighter, you must take the spin off of the jab and instead point the jab at your opponent to be effective. Guerrero would need to be able use the jab the same way a baseball pitcher does by changing up his pitches' speed, angles, and velocity. If Guerrero can do this, it could be a major key to keeping Mayweather uncomfortable. However, this is not Guerrero's strength and it probably won't be come fight time.
GUERRERO WILL NOT BE ABLE TO OVERCOME MAYWEATHER'S ELBOW/FOREARM TO THE THROAT
If you look closely at Mayweather's fights, he is very proficient at sticking his elbow or forearm in his opponent's throat on the inside. Well, fighting on the inside is Robert Guerrero's forte. Fighting on the inside is what Guerrero wants and Mayweather knows this, which is why he will use this tactic to perfection all night long. If team Guerrero is not aware of this or does not bring it to the referee's attention come locker room instruction time, Guerrero will just be another victim of Floyd's elbow/forearm and the frustration that accompanies it. Guererro must be prepared for this and must come up with a plan to counter it. In Mayweather's fight against Shane Mosley, he stuck the elbow/forearm to Mosley's throat the whole night and there was nothing Mosley could do about it. It may not be much different for Guerrero.
GUERERRO CANNOT AVOID MAYWEATHER'S "THIRD FIST"
Mayweather likes to use a third fist in the ring by sticking his elbow out while his opponent is punching. This stops them from punching. Why? Because it stings when you get hit with an elbow in your face and makes you pause. Victor Ortiz was the last guy who fell victim to this tactic. Ortiz claimed that Mayweather stuck his elbow out while he was punching and that the referee did not catch it. If Guererro's game plan is to push Mayweather to the ropes and keep the fight up close just as he did with Andre Berto, this tactic will block Guerrero from executing, unless he has a plan to counter an elbow to the face. Mayweather is a master at this and will utilize this all fight long.
GUERRERO CANNOT PUNCH WHILE MAYWEATHER IS PUNCHING
When Mayweather fought Demarcus "Chop Chop" Corley, he was hurt when Corley was able to punch while Mayweather was punching. Corley actually hurt Mayweather pretty badly. If Guerrero was proficient at this strategy, it would work well for him especialy since he is a southpaw, like Corley. However, Guerrero's punches tend to be wide and punching while his opponent is punching is not Guerrero's specialty. Some say that this strategy of being able to punch while his opponent is punching is one of the reasons Mayweather did not want to fight Manny Pacquiao because this was one of Pacquiao's best skills.
Ultimately, if Guerrero is to have any chance to win this fight, he must be able to do something different than the strategy that Mayweather's previous opponents utilized. We have all heard that the key to defeating Mayweather is to use constant pressure, constant pressure, and more constant pressure but so far that hasn't worked at all. So far, that strategy has failed over and over again. It got Ricky Hatton knocked out, Mosley beat up, Ortiz knocked out, and Cotto's face busted up.
Mayweather said that Guerrero is a flat-footed fighter with no leg movement, straight up and down, and no special effects. These are the types of fighters that Mayweather loves to fight because he can exploit them and their styles are tailor made for him. Those qualities may very well be why Mayweather chose to fight Guerrero. If Guerrero was a fighter who could bounce on his toes like Muhammad Ali, utilized great side-to-side movement like Aaron Pryor, and had the special effects of a Roy Jones Jr, he probably would have never received the opportunity to fight Mayweather.